Check out here below how the forecast model worked in the previous three years!
There is no reason to explain anything; the 2014 Cotton Forecast Model was just perfect.
The 2015 was not an easy year; you see how many choppy movements we had to deal with! But still, as I said before, the Model was able to forecast the main trend of the year.
The 2016 Cotton Forecast Model was able to forecast the main trend of the year, but we had probably some troubles in July due to a strong fast up push, lasting just 3 days. The dots blue line tries to simplify the model, showing how the main trend was the real one we had to follow, and even if we had to suffer in July, with patience we could make very good profits! A constant uptrend started in February as suggested by the forecast, and even if we were about to close the position at the beginning of July, it was a great trade anyway. We cannot trade every swing buying at the Low and selling at the Top!
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