- March 2, 2022
- Posted by: Daniele Prandelli
- Categories: Forecast, S&P500, Trading
In 2021 I had a bad year; it has been very tough, above all because I had to face a negative performance in some markets that, since 2012, I had been always in profit. I had to go through a self-analysis process to understand what happened and be able to fix it. To do so, I had to be very honest to myself; today, I want to share with you what happened, and what I have changed to be back to the good performance that I used to.
January 2019 – a new discovery that changed my trading
It was January 2019 when I discovered a new wonderful market law or market statistic that allowed me to forecast very precise time windows for reading a specific pattern; it changed my trading because I added this new weapon to my arsenal; it became fundamental for my further trades, and the results were great.
The results are extremely evident in one of my top markets, the S&P500; in the next chart we see my strategy performance from 2012 until the end of 2020; I have underlined January 2019 in the chart, and the slop of the performance increased, which means I was making more consistent profits:
The results were great! The chart here above shows my performance from 2012 until November 2020; in the same way, we did very well with Soybeans, probably my personal favorite market; here is the Performance chart from 2012 until today, and we can see it again how the results increased after January 2019.
It’s a matter of fact: the discovery I made in January 2019 helped me to drastically improve my ability to read the market.
November 2020: what happened?
Hence, thanks to January 2019’s new discovery supported by my other tools like the Polarity Factor System (PFS), the Planetary Lines, and other studies, we had a wonderful period. I can say that I felt almost infallible at some point… and that was the problem!
In November 2020 the Stock Market made a new High, and in December it went even higher. I was not expecting to see December 2020 moving higher, but that would have been normal, I just had to recognize the breakout and bet on a continuation of the uptrend; I did it already, many times, that’s part of making a call. However, at that exact moment, I was not able to see it. I became blind and stubborn. Why? Simple: I felt so infallible that I could not accept being wrong; I was not looking at the market anymore to understand what happened! I just looked at my analysis only to find a reason to be right in the end. And you know, when you want to see something, you easily see it, but it does not mean that it is real then!
I went on with this bad habit for months; I had to take a tough lesson: when I become too confident, I must recognize it and remember to stay humble. The market decides for itself, I cannot decide for it.
The result of my bad habit after November 2020 can be seen in the performance chart of the S&P500:
It is evident! Something was not working anymore, and it was me, not my tools! You can imagine how painful this situation could be, after almost nine years of consistent profits.
This situation created a lot of stress, I studied more to find solutions, but in this way, I had no time to study all the markets I was covering anymore, and this loop affected the performance in other markets too. It was a nightmare, I am telling you!
The Soybeans market helped me to survive during this period. I had to step back and recognize all the mistakes made. How did I do that? I went through all my decisions and forecast. It is impressive to read now that I took choices that were against what my normal forecast would have suggested.
I got blind and full of myself! I also lost some of my subscribers, another thing that I was not used to!
After recognizing all this situation, I had to make changes.
What do I have changed and how this affected my service?
I made changes inside myself, I changed nothing about my tools. Probably I only changed how to use them, but I did not change them. I am sure that the discovery I made in January 2019 made me feel too confident at some point. It became a double-edged sword, and I cut myself in the end. Recognizing all this helped me to fix the problems. The results are easy to see from September 2021:
First, I tried to be humble and wait for the market to show me the way, even when I had a solid and precise forecast; when I tried to anticipate the market in the past, I usually did great anyway, before November 2020, so well that I did not remember what being wrong meant. But the time of being wrong always comes at some point! That point was November 2020 for me. Second, I found a better connection between my tools, and now I first work with the trend, and only later I try to look for the precise Key Date that can tell me the exact days when to expect a new pattern, inversion, or breakout. This is something important: I stopped believing I was able to perfectly forecast the market. Yes, I know sometimes I do am good at that, but trading is not just forecast.
This article may sound boring, I know. Instead, I consider these kinds of considerations as deeply important. If we have the patience to investigate our mistakes, we are always able to see them; if we can see them, we can avoid them; if we do not understand why we lose money, we will never be able to fix the problem.